Market Intelligence · for accredited & institutional investors
MAS Capital Markets Services Licence no. CMS101936 · Fund Management
MAS Capital Markets Services Licence no. CMS101936 · Fund Management
11 OCTOBER 2026 · MARKET INTELLIGENCE · MI-050 · PUBLIC EDITION
The other 490: cheaper, not broken
- What happened? Since the Iran war began in late February, the S&P 500 has set records, yet just over half of its stocks fell.
- What did we check? The 490 companies outside the ten giants.
- Are their profits falling? Mostly not: main street’s grew about 9%.
- So what fell? Their valuation: the price investors will pay for those profits.
- Why does it matter? It decides what it would take for the rest of the market to catch up.
Where we stand. Most of the market is cheaper, not broken.
- The split: since 27 February, the last trading day before the US–Israel strikes on Iran, the S&P 500 is up 13.5%. Yet just over half of its stocks are lower.
- No single “rest”:
- 54 chip, hardware and power-equipment makers inside the 490: up about 87% this year
- 10 AI software and security firms: up about 30%
- Oil and gas: up 45%
- The other 405 companies (“main street”, about 43% of the index): roughly flat (+0.5%)
- Not a profit recession: main street’s profits rose about 9% over the past year. Four in five companies grew.
- A valuation squeeze: investors pay about 19 times profits for them, down from 21 in January. A 10-year US yield above 5% is the main weight.
- Real pain in two corners: housing and the squeezed shopper.
- For investors: the rest can catch up without waiting for an economic turn. First they need lower long-term interest rates, and that trigger is not on today.
Inside: how to read the numbers · the 490 split into groups · where it hurts, with household names · the profit check · inside software, financials, and health, industry, materials and media, with this month’s results to watch · what it says about the US economy · how past narrow markets ended · four ways the gap can close · the one number to watch · what it means for portfolios.
HOW TO READ THE NUMBERS
- S&P 500 (cap-weighted): the index everyone quotes. The top ten names are about 40% of it, so it tells you how the giants did.
- S&P 500 Equal Weight: the same 500 names at 0.2% each, so it tells you how the average constituent did.
- Breadth: how many constituents are up and how many are down over a period.
- Bullish Percent Index: the share of stocks whose own chart is in an uptrend
- Each stock is marked “buy” or “sell” by a simple point-and-figure rule; every stock counts once
- Above 70: most are already rising; little fuel left
- Below 30: most have broken down; selling may be largely done
- The signal is the turn out of a zone, not the level
- Today: a reading of about 28: 1,313 of 4,756 US stocks (27.6%) are in a chart uptrend, about seven in ten in a downtrend (thetrading.tools, 9 October close), inside the oversold zone below 30
- “Buy” and “sell” here are chart signals, not analysts’ ratings
- “The 490” = the companies left after removing the ten largest (492 share lines; a few firms list two classes of share). The ten largest today are the chip, cloud and platform giants, plus Berkshire Hathaway.
1 · THE SPLIT
- S&P 500: +13.5%
- S&P 500 Equal Weight: +3.9%
- Breadth: just over half lower
2 · WHO CARRIED IT
- The ten largest are about 40% of the index
- They delivered 63% of its gain since 27 February
- And 45% of this year’s gain
3 · HOW WIDE
- 42% of S&P 500 stocks are lower this year
- 38% are more than 20% below their 12-month high
- Fewer than half trade above their 200-day average
4 · THE SURPRISE
- 405 “main street” companies:
- profits +9% over the past year
- share prices +0.5% this year
- valuation: 21× → 19× profits
The scoreboard: a record index, most stocks left behind
Same market, two indices. Since 27 February the S&P 500 has beaten the S&P 500 Equal Weight by about ten points, and just over half of all S&P 500 stocks are lower.
THE THREE NUMBERS, SINCE 27 FEBRUARY
- S&P 500 (cap-weighted): +13.5%. How the giants did.
- S&P 500 Equal Weight: +3.9%. How the average constituent did.
- Breadth: 257 of 499 constituents are lower, just over half. This year, 212 (about four in ten).
- The read: a ten-point gap between the first two, and negative breadth, means the index is being carried by a few.
- The gap opened with the war. The S&P 500 Equal Weight peaked against the S&P 500 on 27 February and has lost about 9% against it since.
- Through oil and rates: the war lifted oil, inflation expectations and bond yields, which squeezed main street harder than the giants. It is not the only cause: the AI boom and the Fed’s September rate rise played their part.
- The S&P 500 Equal Weight is at its weakest against the S&P 500 in 23 years: the September month-end reading was the lowest since the equal-weight fund began in 2003.
- Not new, only deeper: the S&P 500 Equal Weight has trailed the S&P 500 since 2014, with a sharp step down from 2023.
A decade of the big getting bigger. The line falls when the S&P 500 beats the S&P 500 Equal Weight. On year-end readings it peaked at the end of 2014 and is now about 30% lower. The two big recoveries came after the 2008–09 crash and in 2022, when rising rates hit the largest companies hardest.
The 490 are three markets, not one
| Group | Companies | Share of S&P 500 value | Price, this year | Price, since 27 Feb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The ten largest | 10 | 40% | +16% | +23% |
| AI hardware and power chain chips, servers, optics, data storage, network gear and power equipment | 54 | 11% | +87% | +55% |
| AI software and security cybersecurity, AI and data tools, Oracle | 10 | 3% | +30% | +63% |
| Oil and gas | 21 | 3% | +45% | +17% |
| “Main street”: everyone else | 405 | 43% | +0.5% | −2.1% |
Weighted by size; FMP market values and prices, 9 October; dividends excluded. Main street = 407 share lines.
- The fact against the easy story: measured by size, the 490 rose about 13% this year, not far behind the giants’ 16%. That total hides two booms.
- The AI boom runs well beyond ten stocks:
- Chips and chipmaking equipment: Marvell +224% · AMD +184% · Intel +184% · Applied Materials +97% · Lam Research +86%
- Optics, the fibre and lasers that carry data between AI chips: Lumentum +199% · Ciena +92% · Corning +79% · Coherent +69%
- Servers, networking and storage: Sandisk +566% · Dell +366% · Seagate +184% · Arista Networks +65% · Cisco +54%
- Power for data centres: Bloom Energy +223% · Quanta Services +67% · GE Vernova +54% · Vertiv +50% · Eaton +35%
- AI software and security: Fortinet +145% · CrowdStrike +135% · Palo Alto Networks +127% · Datadog +116%
- Oil’s windfall: Marathon Petroleum +180% · Valero +166% · Exxon Mobil +40% · Chevron +39%
- Main street is the real “rest”: 405 companies; half are lower this year.
The spread inside “the rest”: from +87% for the hardware and power chain to −22% for the services and software firms the market fears AI will replace.
Inside main street: where it hurts, in household names
| Corner | Share price this year · profits, latest quarter vs a year ago | What is going on |
|---|---|---|
| Housing |
|
|
| The squeezed shopper |
|
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| Bond-like shares |
|
|
| Doubted futures: disrupted |
|
|
| Doubted futures: maturing |
|
|
| For contrast: doing fine |
|
|
Prices: FMP, 31 Dec 2025 (or 27 Feb, where marked) to 9 Oct 2026. Profits: adjusted earnings per share, latest reported quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier, via FMP. Reasons given are the market’s widely reported concerns, not our forecasts.
Recession or re-rating? The profit check
Read each pair top to bottom. Navy is the share price; gold is profit growth. Where gold is longer than navy, investors pay less for each dollar of profit than in January. Only the two AI groups show the reverse.
- Profits held up; valuations did not.
- Main street profits: +9% over the past year
- Main street share prices: +0.5% this year
- Valuation: about 21× → 19× profits
- Four in five grew.
- Half of main-street companies grew profits by about 9% or more over the past four quarters
- 81% grew
- A second source agrees.
- FactSet, a company-profit data firm: S&P 500 companies outside the seven largest tech names grew profits 31.8% in the second quarter
- That group includes the chip and oil booms
- But growth is slowing.
- Main street: half are expected to grow profits by about 7% or more this quarter
- Household names +5% · bond-like shares +4%
- FactSet sector forecasts (9 Oct): staples +3.1% · financials +3.0% · health care +4.2% · utilities +7.0%
- Against: technology +65% · energy +121%
- The stretched valuations are not where most people look.
- The ten giants: valuation fell this year, as profits outran prices (helped by one-off gains on stakes in AI labs at two of them)
- The AI hardware and power chain inside the 490: about 30× → 40×
- AI software and security: about 46× → 50×; cybersecurity alone about 57× → 115×
- The widest gap: AI’s suspected victims.
- Profits rose about 6%; share prices fell about 22%, a 28-point gap
- Valuation cut by about a quarter (22.7× → 16.7×), the deepest of any group
- The market is marking down their future, not their present
Inside software and services: the market is sorting, not dumping
One industry, two verdicts. Profits grew in every group; the share prices split on who AI is expected to help and who it is expected to replace.
- AI is splitting software in two.
- Rewarded: cybersecurity +133% · AI and data tools +27%
- Punished: software sold per user −24% · IT services −23% · data and ratings −21% · Oracle −27%
- The widest gap: software sold per user.
- Salesforce · ServiceNow · Workday · Adobe · Intuit · Autodesk
- Profits +24%, share prices −24%; valuation 26× → 16×
- The fear: AI agents shrink the number of people who need a licence
- Cybersecurity is priced for perfection.
- CrowdStrike · Palo Alto Networks · Fortinet: valuation about 57× → 115× on profits +15%
- The view: more AI means more to defend
- Results to watch:
- IBM 21 Oct · Fortinet, ServiceNow 28 Oct · Palantir 2 Nov · Datadog 5 Nov
- Workday, Autodesk 24 Nov · CrowdStrike 1 Dec · Salesforce 2 Dec · Oracle, Adobe 9 Dec · Accenture 17 Dec
- Analysts expect (median, vs a year ago): per-user software +10% · cybersecurity +16% · IT services +4%
- The test: per-user software still growing sales would say the sell-off went too far; cybersecurity needs clear beats to hold 100×
Inside financials: higher rates help some, hurt others
Same rates, opposite effects. Businesses paid on balances and busy markets rose; those tied to deal-making, private credit and the squeezed shopper fell.
- Financials as a whole: cheaper, not broken.
- 72 companies, about 10% of the index
- Share prices flat this year (+8% since 27 February); profits +17%
- Valuation 18× → 16×
- Helped by high rates and busy markets:
- Custody and trading platforms (BNY, State Street, Northern Trust, Interactive Brokers): +31%
- Life insurers (MetLife +25%): +11%; they earn more on new bonds
- Hurt:
- Alternative managers (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo): −25%; withdrawal requests at private-credit funds and exposure to AI data centres
- Card lenders (American Express, Capital One, Synchrony): −17%; the squeezed shopper
- Payment processors (Fiserv, PayPal, FIS): −11%; profits barely growing, a business problem rather than an AI one
- Results to watch, starting this week:
- 13 Oct: JPMorgan · Wells Fargo · Citigroup · Goldman Sachs
- 14 Oct: Bank of America · Morgan Stanley · State Street · Progressive
- 15 Oct: Schwab · BNY · US Bancorp · PNC
- 20–23 Oct: Capital One, Synchrony (20) · Blackstone (22) · American Express (23)
- Analysts expect (vs a year ago): JPMorgan +17% · Citigroup +42% · Wells Fargo +7% · Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley +5% · Bank of America +4%
- The test: whether trading and deal fees hold up as higher rates slow deals, and whether card losses start to rise
Inside health, industry, materials and media: four different stories
Hope, building and metals up; devices, defence and media down. Healthcare and transport rose further than their profits; miners rose with theirs.
- The group as a whole:
- 166 companies, about 19% of the index
- Share prices +5% this year; profits +5%; valuation unchanged at about 21×
- Healthcare: on the mend, on hope more than profits.
- Big pharma +19% (Merck +38% · Amgen +27% · J&J +26% · AbbVie +21%): profits flat, partly after deal charges; valuation 20× → 24.5×; Eli Lilly’s sales +48% (Mounjaro, Zepbound)
- Why: drug-pricing deals with the White House (December 2025) came with a three-year pause on threatened drug tariffs; new approvals and trial wins lifted hopes (Merck’s cholesterol pill)
- Health insurers +17% (Humana +68% · Centene +59% · UnitedHealth +15%): higher 2027 Medicare payment rates (April), better plan ratings at Humana (9 October), higher marketplace premiums at Centene
- Medical devices −19% (Boston Scientific −55% · Intuitive Surgical −25% · Abbott −21% · Stryker −21%): profits +6%, valuation 26× → 20×; Boston Scientific warned in May that Watchman heart-implant sales may stall; Intuitive’s US procedure growth slowed from 14% to 12%
- One sector, opposite earnings: an insurer’s claims are a device maker’s sales. Insurers are repairing margins (UnitedHealth spent 86.7% of premiums on care, down from 89.4%); device makers still grow, but investors pay less for that growth
- Industry: paid for building, not for defence.
- Building and equipment +17%: Caterpillar +40% (second-quarter construction sales +35%; strong data-centre demand for its generators and turbines) · Deere +33% · United Rentals +31%
- Transport +15%: CSX +30% · FedEx +25% · Union Pacific +20%; UPS −5%
- Aerospace and defence −5%, despite the war: Northrop −16% · Boeing −12%; profits +16%, valuation 32.5× → 27×
- Demand is not the problem: GE Aerospace raised its guidance (second-quarter revenue +24%) and Northrop’s order book is a record US$105bn. The fall is in the price paid, not the business
- Materials: real profit growth.
- Miners and steel +34%: Nucor +53% · Freeport-McMoRan +45% · Newmont +18%; profits +56%
- Driven by prices more than volumes: Nucor expects third-quarter profit per share of about US$5.60, double a year ago, on higher steel prices; Freeport expects copper above US$6.50 a pound. Cheap valuations here rest on metal prices that may not last
- Part of it is an AI story too: copper wires data centres and the power grid that feeds them, and Linde supplies gases to chip plants. Like Caterpillar, these are AI beneficiaries that sit outside our AI groups, so the AI boom is, if anything, understated in our figures
- Chemicals steadier at +10% (Linde +13%)
- Media and telecoms: broadly weak.
- Cable and telecoms −16%: Charter −50% · T-Mobile −27% · Comcast −26%; Verizon +2%
- Cable is losing customers (Charter: 172,000 fewer internet customers in the second quarter). A new threat for mobile: on 9 October SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide airwaves (about US$8bn), and T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T fell 5–7%
- Entertainment −15%: Netflix −25% · Disney −5%; Live Nation +20%; Netflix still grows (second-quarter sales +13%), but its outlook disappointed
- Results to watch:
- 13 Oct: Johnson & Johnson · UnitedHealth
- 20–22 Oct: GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix (20) · Abbott, Elevance, Thermo Fisher, CSX, AT&T (21) · Lockheed Martin, Union Pacific, Newmont, Comcast (22)
- 26–30 Oct: Nucor (26) · Freeport-McMoRan, Centene, Boeing (27) · Boston Scientific (28) · Merck, Eli Lilly (29) · AbbVie (30); Caterpillar 4 Nov
- Analysts expect (median, vs a year ago): big pharma −11% · health insurers −13% · building and equipment +13% · miners and steel +78%
- The test across the group: is a lower valuation paying for a passing setback (devices, defence, Netflix) or for lasting damage (cable)? And can healthcare’s higher valuation be earned in results?
What the 490 say about the US economy
- A two-speed economy: a spending boom in data centres, power and chips, plus an oil windfall, beside a household under pressure.
- The household:
- Petrol about US$4.35 a gallon, ~US$1.23 more than a year ago (US Energy Information Administration, 5 Oct)
- Consumer mood 46.3 (University of Michigan, early Oct), near May’s record low of 44.8; buying conditions for big-ticket goods “plummeted amid high prices and borrowing costs”
- Confidence 81.9 in September, the lowest since April 2014 (Conference Board)
- 30-year mortgage 7.40% (Freddie Mac, 8 Oct)
- Jobs:
- Hiring has nearly stopped: 29,000 jobs added in September; unemployment 4.2%
- Firing has not started: 197,000 new jobless claims in the week to 3 October, near this cycle’s lows
- Business: the strongest activity in about five years (S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index, 58.4 in September), led by the build-out.
- So the “recession” is in two corners, housing and the squeezed shopper, not in the economy as a whole. The share market shows it more as a valuation cut than a profit cut.
- One drag is not about the cycle at all: AI itself is the feared threat to services and software firms. Lower interest rates would not fix that.
How past narrow markets ended
| Episode · what was happening | Narrow phase: S&P 500 Equal Weight vs S&P 500 | How it ended | What did it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–16China slowdown and a surprise yuan devaluation (Aug-15); oil fell from ~US$100 to below US$30; first Fed rate rise in nearly a decade (Dec-15) | Jun-15 to Feb-16: −7.6% vs −4.9% | Catch-up: +20.1% vs +18.0% to Dec-16 | Oil bottomed; growth returned |
| 2018Fed raising rates and shrinking its bond holdings; US–China trade war; sharp year-end sell-off | Sep to Dec: −13.9% vs −13.5% | Everything fell | The Fed was still raising rates |
| 2020–21Covid lockdowns; “stay-at-home” winners soared; vaccines (Nov-20) reopened the economy | Dec-19 to Sep-20: −4.8% vs +5.6% | The biggest catch-up: +40.9% vs +26.4% to May-21 | Vaccine news; yields rose because growth came back |
| 2022Inflation at a 40-year high; fastest Fed rate rises since the 1980s; Russia invades Ukraine | Narrow into end-2021 | Everything fell, leaders more: −11.6% vs −18.2% | Inflation; the 10-year rose from ~1.5% to ~4% |
| 2023ChatGPT sparks the AI rally and the “Magnificent Seven”; US regional bank failures (Mar-23); the 10-year touches 5% | Jul to Oct: −11.9% vs −8.3% | Catch-up, two months: +16.6% vs +14.1% to Dec-23 | The 10-year peaked near 5% and fell |
| 2024–25AI boom broadens; a yen-funded trade unwinds (Aug-24); China’s DeepSeek shakes the AI leaders (Jan-25); US “Liberation Day” tariffs (Apr-25) | Narrow into mid-2024 and into Jan-25 | Brief catch-ups, then falls together (Aug-24, Apr-25) | Rate-cut hopes; then the yen trade and tariffs |
| 2026 (now)US–Israel war with Iran from 28 Feb; Brent oil above US$100; the Fed raising rates again (Sep); AI build-out at full speed | Feb to Sep: +2.7% vs +12.0% | Not yet | Yields rising on oil, inflation and government borrowing |
Equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) vs S&P 500 fund (SPY), month-end closes including dividends (Alpha Vantage); our arithmetic.
- Narrow markets did not end on their own. Something from outside closed each one: a growth surprise, a peak in bond yields, or a fall.
- Yields decided the direction.
- Gap closed upward (the rest caught up) when yields peaked (2023), or rose because growth improved (2016, 2020–21)
- Gap closed downward (everything fell) when yields rose on inflation or Fed hikes (2018, 2022)
- Today’s rise is the second kind: oil, inflation, government borrowing
- The difference from 2022: main-street profits are still growing
- In the big falls, the S&P 500 Equal Weight did no worse than the S&P 500.
Can the rest catch up? Four paths, judged against our check
| Path | What it needs | Our check | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The rest catch up | Long-term yields falling |
| Bullish Percent turns up from below 30; the S&P 500 Equal Weight beats the S&P 500 |
| 2. Leaders fall, the rest hold 2000–01 shape | The AI build-out slowing |
| Chipmakers keep falling on good results |
| 3. Everything falls together 2018 / 2022 shape | Yields rising on inflation or Fed hikes |
| The VIX (fear gauge) jumps while the S&P 500 Equal Weight also falls |
| 4. Stalemate | Nothing from outside |
| The gap simply persists |
OUR READ
- The rest are cheaper, not broken. For most of main street, profits are still growing.
- So a catch-up does not need an economic turn first. It needs long-term rates to fall, while profits keep growing as they slow.
- Today that trigger is not on: the 10-year yield is 5.24% and the Fed raised rates in September.
- Base case: stalemate. But the gap can close fast once yields turn: in late 2023 the S&P 500 Equal Weight gained 16.6% in two months.
- The risk to watch sits inside the 490: the AI hardware and power chain at about 40 times profits, and cybersecurity at more than 100 times.
WHAT CUTS AGAINST US
- Forecasts are rising, not falling. Analysts raised third-quarter estimates during the quarter; a record 72 of 116 companies gave upbeat guidance (FactSet). That has tended to come before more upgrades.
- If main-street profits speed up again, the gentle path does not need lower yields.
- Our profit figures are companies’ own adjusted earnings. One-offs can flatter or hurt single names; we use group totals and breadth counts, not single cases.
- A cheap share can stay cheap. In 1998–2000 the gap ran about two years before it closed.
THE ONE NUMBER TO WATCH: THE 10-YEAR US YIELD
- Today: 5.24% (9 October), up from 4.45% in May.
- Back below 5%: path 1 opens, first for bond-like shares, whose profits are intact.
- Rising further on inflation news: path 3 becomes the risk, and main street’s discount deepens.
- Why it beats any single stock signal: it sets the valuation investors pay for main street’s profits.
- For investors outside the US: while it stays high, US dollar cash pays around 4%, a real alternative while waiting; a non-US-dollar investor carries currency moves on top.
Questions to carry forward, and what each would tell an investor
| The question | What would answer it | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| Does the 10-year yield fall below 5%? Nov–Dec | US Treasury closes |
|
| Do main-street profits hold up? results season, 13 Oct to mid-Nov | Half of companies growing ~7% or more, as expected |
|
| Does breadth turn? weekly | Share of US stocks in uptrends back above ~32% (now about 28%) |
|
| Does petrol ease? weekly | US pump prices back below US$4 |
|
| Do chipmakers keep falling on good results? 15 Oct onward | TSMC (15 Oct), then the cloud companies late October |
|
What would change our mind
- Main-street profits start falling broadly: a recession in the making, not a re-rating; a catch-up needs the economy to turn first.
- Yields fall and the gap still widens: the gap is about AI winners and losers, not rates.
- The AI chain’s profits keep outrunning its share prices: its valuation corrects without a fall.
What it means for portfolios
First, know what an index fund holds:
- An S&P 500 fund: about 40% in ten companies, and roughly another 14% in AI hardware, software and power
- More concentrated than its 500 names suggest
The useful question is not “giants or the rest”, but why a share has fallen. Five groups:
- 1. Lower valuation, profits intact: first to move if yields fall
- Who: Duke Energy · Southern Company · NextEra Energy · American Water Works · Realty Income
- Why: steady payers whose prices follow the 10-year yield
- 2. Profits stalling or falling: need the household to recover, not just rates
- Housing: Home Depot · Lowe’s · Lennar
- Shopper: Nike · Lululemon · McDonald’s · PepsiCo · General Mills
- Why: a lower valuation alone does not make them cheap
- 3. Doubted futures: lower rates will not fix it
- Disrupted: Salesforce · ServiceNow · Workday · Adobe · Intuit · IBM · Accenture · Booking · Uber
- Maturing: Netflix
- Why: profits are growing, but the market doubts they will last
- 4. Priced for the boom: most exposed to a stumble
- Who: Dell · AMD · Lam Research · Applied Materials · Lumentum · Corning · Arista Networks · GE Vernova · Vertiv · Eaton · CrowdStrike · Palo Alto Networks
- Why: profits surging, valuations rising faster (AMD about 57× → 106× this year; Lam Research 38× → 55×; Corning 37× → 55×; cybersecurity 57× → 115×)
- 5. Moving with their profits: no catch-up needed
- Who: Visa · Mastercard · JPMorgan · Costco · Walmart · Coca-Cola · Eli Lilly
- Why: the debate about “the rest” does not apply to them
For most portfolios this is a map to keep in view, not a reason to trade: a set of dated tests, led by the 10-year yield and this month’s results.
Ask us. If you would like to discuss how this split bears on a specific portfolio, or how we will mark these tests as the evidence arrives, we would be glad to talk. Write to us at insights@tscapital.sg.
About this publication. A 简体中文 edition is published alongside this one and is not a translation of it. Touchstone Market Intelligence is produced by Touchstone Asset Management Pte. Ltd., licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (CMS101936) for fund management, for Accredited and Institutional Investors.
Not advice. This document is general commentary on market developments. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. It does not take account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Any decision should follow a suitability discussion with your adviser.
Companies named. Companies are named only to illustrate how a group of shares has behaved; they are examples, not a complete list. Naming a company is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold it, and says nothing about whether Touchstone or its clients own it.
Method. Universe: S&P 500 constituents as listed by Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) on 11 October 2026 (503 share lines). “The ten largest” by FMP market value at the 9 October close, which may differ slightly from the index’s float-adjusted weights. Breadth = share lines priced lower than at the start date (257 of 499 since 27 February; 212 of 499 this year). S&P 500 Equal Weight = the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). Price changes from FMP closes on 31 December 2025, 27 February 2026 and 9 October 2026, dividends excluded; three recent spin-offs without year-end prices are left out of return figures. Groups start from FMP industry labels, adjusted: AI hardware and power chain = semiconductors, computer hardware, communication equipment, hardware and parts, electrical equipment, engineering and construction, plus power-equipment and power-generation names FMP files elsewhere (GE Vernova, Eaton, Constellation Energy, Vistra, NRG Energy); rate-sensitive = other utilities, real estate, homebuilders, home improvement, construction materials; AI software and security = CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, F5, Palantir, Datadog, Twilio, Cadence, Synopsys, Oracle; AI’s suspected victims = application software sold per user, IT services and consulting, data, ratings and credit-score providers, Omnicom, Uber, Booking; financials = banks, brokers, insurers, card companies, asset managers, exchanges and payment processors (Berkshire Hathaway sits in the ten largest); household spending = other consumer companies; health, industry, materials and media = the rest. Groups are set by what drives each share price, not by vendor labels alone. Earnings dates and analysts’ estimates: company calendars and consensus via FMP at 9 October; dates can move. Profits = adjusted earnings per share as reported via FMP; group totals weight each company by its current share count. These are our calculations and approximations.
Sources and limitations. FMP prices, market values, reported earnings and BLS data series; Alpha Vantage monthly closes for RSP and SPY; FactSet Earnings Insight (John Butters, 28 August and 9 October 2026); thetrading.tools Bullish Percent Index (9 October close); US Energy Information Administration (5 October); University of Michigan (October preliminary); The Conference Board (29 September); Freddie Mac (8 October); S&P Global flash PMI (23 September); Reuters (Netflix, 17 July); Pharmacy Times (drug-pricing deals, 19 December 2025); The Wall Street Journal, Heard on the Street (6 January 2026); STAT (Medicare Advantage rates, 6 April 2026); Yahoo Finance (Centene, 28 April); 24/7 Wall St. (Humana, 9 October); Trefis (Merck, 18 September); The Motley Fool (Boston Scientific, 29 May); company filings and releases (UnitedHealth, Eli Lilly, GE Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, Nucor, Freeport-McMoRan, Charter); ICR (medtech, 23 July); Construction Dive (Caterpillar, 10 August); Reuters via The Star (SpaceX spectrum, 9 October); market reporting on the robotaxi, AI-travel-agent and IT-services concerns (TipRanks, Investing.com, eToro, TIKR, The Motley Fool); US Treasury yields via FMP. Figures move daily; verify before relying on any number here. Past episodes are not a guide to future returns. The framework, reasoning and conclusions are our own.
Disclosure. Touchstone uses AI tools, including Anthropic’s Claude, in research and drafting.
Layer-A general market commentary: companies and sectors are named only as examples of public market behaviour; no security is named as a holding and no position is implied. Prepared under named human editorial control; AI tools were used in research and drafting under that supervision. Touchstone Asset Management Pte. Ltd. · Market Intelligence · MI-050, 11 October 2026. © 2026 Touchstone Asset Management. All rights reserved.
拓石资产管理 · TOUCHSTONE ASSET MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD. · CMS101936 · MARKET INTELLIGENCE MI-050 · 11 OCTOBER 2026 · insights@tscapital.sg